The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a consumer confidence measure released monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are done of a contiguous United States sample.
Surveys of Michigan Consumers Sentiment Index Director Joanne Hsu
Michigan Consumer sentiment Index plummeted another 11% last month, with reductions reported uniformly across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic locations. Sentiment has now declined for three consecutive months and is already down 22% from December 2024. While present economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across numerous sectors of the economy, including personal finances, job markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets.
Many customers mentioned the high amount of uncertainty around policy and other economic considerations; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it exceedingly difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy inclinations. Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February. Despite their heightened optimism following the election, Republicans saw a substantial 10% fall in their expectations index in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index plummeted an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.
Year-ahead inflation forecasts went up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the biggest figure since November 2022 and representing three straight months of extremely substantial jumps of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s surge was noted across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation predictions jumped from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March. This is the greatest month-over-month increase seen since 1993, originating from a sizable jump among Independents, and followed an already-large increase in February.
US Consumer Sentiment Global Deterioration Scale Sharply in March
WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer morale dropped to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March and inflation expectations jumped amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have launched a trade war, will hike prices and hurt the economy.
The decline in sentiment and inflation predictions revealed by the University of Michigan Surveys of respondents on Friday was across political party identification, with respondents saying “frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future.”
That echoes similar concerns in various corporate surveys. The uncertainty produced by Trump’s on-again and off-again tariffs as well as an escalation in trade conflicts risks derailing the economic expansion. Fears of increased prices, which propelled consumers’ long-term inflation expectations to levels last seen in early 1993, offer a dilemma for Federal Reserve officials as they assess the next steps for monetary policy.
“The jury is back and the verdict is in. Trump 2.0 policies are damaging the economy and the future prosperity of America,” stated Christopher Rupkey, chief economist of FWDBONDS. “The consumer is frightened and sees sharply higher prices ahead despite the assurances from Washington that trade tariffs are good for the economy.”
Consumer morale slumps in March to lowest since 2022 as Trump tariffs prompt further inflation worries
Key Points
- The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March showed a value of 57.9, a 10.5% fall from February and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 63.2.
- The one-year inflation prediction soared to 4.9%, the highest number since November 2022. At the five-year horizon, the forecast jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 1993.
- While the metric is sometimes prone to discrepancies between parties, poll officials said opinion dropped across partisan lines along with practically all demographics.
Consumer morale took another dip in March as anxieties escalated over inflation and a plunging stock market, according to the University of Michigan’s newest attitude survey issued Friday.
The poll showed a mid-month rating of 57.9, which indicates a 10.5% fall from February and was below the Dow Jones consensus prediction for 63.2. The value was 27.1% below a year ago and was the lowest since November 2022.
While the current conditions indicator declined a less severe 3.3%, the expectations measure for the future was off 15.3% on a monthly basis and 30% from the same period in 2024.
In addition, anxieties grew over where inflation is headed as President Donald Trump levies tariffs against U.S. trading partners. New penalties on aluminum and steel took effect Wednesday, and the president this week also threatened 200% tariffs on European Union booze after the EU struck U.S. whiskey and other commodities with 50% levies.
| Calendar | GMT | Reference | Actual | Previous | Consensus | TEForecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-21 | 03:00 PM | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | Feb | 64.7 | 71.1 | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| 2025-03-14 | 02:00 PM | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel | Mar | 57.9 | 64.7 | 63.1 | 63.2 |
| 2025-03-28 | 02:00 PM | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | Mar | 64.7 | 57.9 | 57.9 | |
| Components | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.90 | 3.50 | percent | Mar 2025 |
| Michigan Consumer Expectations | 54.20 | 64.00 | points | Mar 2025 |
| Michigan Current Conditions | 63.50 | 65.70 | points | Mar 2025 |
| Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.90 | 4.30 | percent | Mar 2025 |
| Related | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 57.90 | 64.70 | points | Mar 2025 |
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers evaluate prospects for their own financial condition, how they assess chances for the broader economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly poll has around 50 core questions, each of which examines a distinct facet of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American homes, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.
| Actual | Previous | Highest | Lowest | Dates | Unit | Frequency | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.90 | 64.70 | 111.40 | 50.00 | 1952 – 2025 | points | Monthly | 1966Q1=100, NSA |
Compare Consumer Confidence by Country
| Country | Last | Previous | Reference | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | -25.5 | -27.58 | Feb/25 | points |
| Argentina | 47.26 | 47.38 | Feb/25 | points |
| Australia | 95.9 | 92.2 | Mar/25 | points |
| Austria | -19.1 | -19.3 | Feb/25 | points |
| Belgium | -4 | -11 | Feb/25 | points |
| Bulgaria | -19.5 | -12.2 | Mar/25 | points |
| Canada | 48.6 | 47.9 | Jan/25 | points |
| Cape Verde | 16 | 16 | Sep/24 | points |
| Chile | 35.3 | 33.3 | Jan/25 | points |
| China | 86.4 | 86.2 | Dec/24 | points |
| Colombia | -12 | -1.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Croatia | -16.5 | -16.4 | Feb/25 | points |
| Cyprus | -18.9 | -17.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Czech Republic | 96.6 | 97.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Denmark | -14.5 | -11.7 | Feb/25 | points |
| Ecuador | 37.7 | 37.2 | Jan/25 | points |
| Estonia | -37.7 | -38.3 | Feb/25 | points |
| Euro Area | -13.6 | -14.2 | Feb/25 | points |
| European Union | -12.9 | -13.3 | Feb/25 | points |
| Faroe Islands | -12 | -9 | Jan/25 | points |
| Finland | -9 | -8.4 | Feb/25 | points |
| France | 93 | 92 | Feb/25 | points |
| Georgia | -24.9 | -19.5 | Oct/24 | points |
| Germany | -24.7 | -22.6 | Mar/25 | points |
| Greece | -42 | -43.4 | Feb/25 | points |
| Hungary | -29.6 | -29.6 | Feb/25 | points |
| Iceland | 112 | 112 | Feb/25 | points |
| India | 93.7 | 94 | Jan/25 | points |
| Indonesia | 126 | 127 | Feb/25 | points |
| Ireland | 74.8 | 74.9 | Feb/25 | points |
| Israel | -23.06 | -27.32 | Feb/25 | points |
| Italy | 98.8 | 98.2 | Feb/25 | points |
| Japan | 35 | 35.2 | Feb/25 | points |
| Kyrgyzstan | 39.2 | 37.6 | Dec/24 | points |
| Latvia | -11.3 | -15.8 | Feb/25 | points |
| Lithuania | 4 | 6 | Feb/25 | points |
| Luxembourg | -11.4 | -7.8 | Feb/25 | points |
| Malaysia | 87.1 | 89.4 | Mar/24 | points |
| Malta | 1.3 | 2.9 | Feb/25 | points |
| Mexico | 46.3 | 46.6 | Feb/25 | points |
| Morocco | 46.5 | 46.2 | Dec/24 | points |
| Netherlands | -32 | -28 | Feb/25 | points |
| New Zealand | 97.5 | 90.8 | Dec/24 | points |
| Norway | -7.5 | -12.4 | Mar/25 | points |
| Pakistan | 40.3 | 38 | Feb/25 | points |
| Paraguay | 53.98 | 55.6 | Dec/24 | points |
| Philippines | -11.1 | -15.6 | Dec/24 | points |
| Poland | -14.8 | -15.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Portugal | -15.3 | -15.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Romania | -17 | -20.3 | Feb/25 | points |
| Russia | -9 | -7 | Dec/24 | points |
| Slovakia | -23.5 | -23.4 | Feb/25 | points |
| Slovenia | -31 | -28 | Feb/25 | points |
| South Africa | -6 | -5 | Dec/24 | points |
| South Korea | 95.2 | 91.2 | Feb/25 | points |
| Spain | 84.9 | 85 | Jan/25 | points |
| Sweden | 95 | 99.1 | Feb/25 | points |
| Switzerland | -34 | -29 | Feb/25 | points |
| Taiwan | 72.59 | 72.54 | Feb/25 | points |
| Thailand | 57.8 | 59 | Feb/25 | points |
| Turkey | 82.1 | 81 | Feb/25 | points |
| Ukraine | 75.6 | 71.1 | Jan/25 | points |
| United Kingdom | -20 | -22 | Feb/25 | points |
| United States | 57.9 | 64.7 | Mar/25 | points |
News Stream
US Consumer Sentiment Sinks in March
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US plummeted to 57.9 in March 2025, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in February and significantly below projections of 63.1, preliminary estimates revealed. Sentiment decreased for a third straight month, with many consumers noting the high level of uncertainty over policy and other economic variables. While present economic conditions were little changed (53.5 vs 65.7), expectations for the future declined (54.2 vs 64) across various areas of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets.
Meanwhile, inflation expectations increased, with the year-ahead gauge climbing to 4.9%, the highest value since November 2022, from 4.3%. Also, inflation predictions for the next five years soared to 3.9% from 3.5% in February, the greatest month-over-month increase observed since 1993.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Revised Sharply Lower
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment Index confidence for the US was reduced substantially lower to 64.7 in February 2025 from a preliminary of 67.8, achieving the lowest level since November 2023. The gauge for current economic circumstances was also revised lower to 65.7 from 68.7 and the expectations subindex was cut down to 64 from 67.3. The decline in sentiment was unequivocal across groups by age, income, and wealth. The reduction was led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to expectations that tariff-induced price rises are imminent.
Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic prognosis both plummeted about 10%, while the long-run economic outlook slid back around 6% to its lowest score since November 2023. Meanwhile, inflation estimates for the year-ahead surged to 4.3%, the most since November 2023. The five-year estimate improved to 3.5% from a preliminary of 3.3% and above 3.2% in January, the greatest monthly increase seen since May 2021.
US Consumer Sentiment Falls, Inflation Expectations Soar
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US dipped to 67.8 in February 2025 from 71.1 in January and below projections of 71.1, preliminary data revealed. Consumer sentiment decreased for the 2nd successive month to hit its lowest score since July 2024, with the gauge for current economic circumstances falling to 68.7 from 74 and the expectations subindex declining to 67.3 from 69.3. There was also a 12% decline in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a view that it may be too late to mitigate the detrimental impact of tariff policy.
In addition, inflation estimates for the year ahead jumped to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, from 3.3%. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a huge one-month spike (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation forecasts. Many customers look apprehensive that high inflation will return within the following year. Also, long-run inflation predictions moved up to 3.3%, the most since June 2008, from 3.2%.
Related
- US 10-Year Yield Holds Above 4.3%
- Dollar Falls Slightly
- US Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations at Over 2-Year High
- US Consumer Sentiment Sinks in March
- US Stocks Rebound
- US Mortgage Rates Rebound to 6.65%
- US Natural Gas Stocks Fall More than Expected
- US Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Fall
- US Producer Prices Flat in February
- US Budget Deficit Exceeds Expectations in February
Related Questions:
When was the last Michigan consumer sentiment?
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment
| Release Date | Actual | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 (Mar) | 64.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 (Feb) | 64.7 | 71.1 |
| Feb 07, 2025 (Feb) | 67.8 | 71.1 |
| Jan 24, 2025 (Jan) | 71.1 | 74.0 |
How does Michigan consumer sentiment affect the dollar?
The index rises when consumers regain confidence in the economy, which portends increased consumer spending and thus economic growth. This growth, in turn, leads to greater interest from foreign investors, which results in the increased value of the dollar against other foreign currencies.
What is the consumer sentiment index for 2025?
Consumer Confidence in the United States decreased to 64.70 points in February from 71.10 points in January of 2025. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 85.18 points from 1952 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 111.40 points in January of 2000 and a record low of 50.00 points in June of 2022.
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